Abstract
Introduction
The emergency medicine (EM) workforce has been growing at a rapid rate, fueled by
a large increase in the number of EM residency programs and growth in the number of
Advanced Practice Providers (APPs).
Objectives
To review current available data on patient volumes and characteristics, the overall
physician workforce, the current emergency physician (EP) workforce, and to project
emergency physician staffing needs into the future.
Methods
Data was obtained through review of the current medical literature, reports from certifying
organizations and professional societies, Web searches for alternative sources, and
published governmental data.
Results
We conservatively estimate the demand for emergency clinicians to grow by ∼1.8% per
year. The actual demand for EPs will likely be lower, considering the higher growth
rates seen by APPs, likely offsetting the need for increasing numbers of EPs. We estimate
the overall supply of board-certified or board-eligible EPs to increase by at least
4% in the near-term, which includes losses due to attrition. In light of this, we
conservatively estimate the supply of board-certified or eligible EPs should exceed
demand by at least 2.2% per year. In the intermediate term, it is possible that the
supply of board-certified or eligible EPs could exceed demand by 3% or more per year.
Using 2.2% growth, we estimate that the number of board-certified or board-eligible
EPs should meet the anticipated demand for EPs as early as the start of 2021. Furthermore,
extrapolating current trends, we anticipate the EP workforce could be 20–30% oversupplied
by 2030.
Conclusions
Historically, there has been a significant shortage of EPs. We project that this shortage
may resolve quickly, and there is the potential for a significant oversupply in the
future.
Keywords
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Article info
Publication history
Published online: April 03, 2020
Accepted:
January 9,
2020
Received in revised form:
January 4,
2020
Received:
July 13,
2019
Identification
Copyright
© 2020 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
